Tyreek Hill is going higher in mock drafts than he should be

moncler saldi Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The 5 foot 10, 185 pound speedster ran a4.24 40 yard dash at his pro day before his selection in the piumini moncler uomo fifth round moncler bambino saldi of the 2016 NFL draft. moncler outlet trebaseleghe And he had the fifth fastest speed (21.64 mph) among NFL ball carriers in 2017. moncler saldi

outlet moncler Yet Hill’s current average draft position the 14th moncler outlet online uomo wide receiver taken, a mid to late third round pick in 12 team, point per reception, or PPR, fantasy leagues might be a bit of an overreach. outlet moncler

moncler bambino saldi Consider how Hill scored his seven touchdowns last season. A league moncler donna leading six of them piumini moncler outlet came on passes at least 30 yards down field, the most since Randy Moss scored seven piumini moncler scontatissimi such touchdowns in 2007. And therein lies the problem: production like that is difficult to repeat. moncler bambino saldi

moncler outlet online uomo For example, Moss had just one touchdown at least that long in 2008 and less than half as much in 2011 and 2012. Of the nine other players who scored at least five touchdowns in a season on passes traveling at least 30 yards in the air a list that also includesBrandon Lloyd, Braylon Edwards, Greg Jennings, Josh Gordon, Lee Evans, Mike Wallace, moncler saldi uomo Robert Meache, Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson only two,Nelson and Jackson, did it twice. moncler outlet online uomo

moncler donna Wide receiver with five or more deep TDs First time Next time Lee Evans 2006 Braylon Edwards 2007 Greg Jennings 2007 Randy Moss 2007 DeSean Jackson 2009 2013 Robert Meachem 2009 Brandon Lloyd 2010 Mike outlet moncler Wallace 2010 Jordy Nelson 2011 2014 Josh Gordon 2013 Tyreek Hill 2017??? One reason for a lack of repeat performances is defensive adjustment NFL teams will see what’s working for Hill and the Chiefs and adapt accordingly. They might not be able to completely neutralize Hill’s speed, but they can certainly tweak how they defend against him. For example, they provided Hill with an average cushion of eight yards at the time of the snap on all his targets in his rookie year but dropped moncler bambino outlet that toan average cushion of moncler uomo 7.2 yards in 2017. That should moncler saldi switch in 2018. moncler donna

moncler outlet Another reason, at least for moncler outlet trebaseleghe Hill, is the change at quarterback. Alex Smith was traded to the Washington Redskins during the offseason, which elevatedPatrick Mahomes II, the 10th overall pick in 2017, to the starting position. moncler outlet

piumini moncler uomo Mahomes projects to have a modest debut at quarterback for Coach moncler outlet Andy Reid. Averaging the first year performance of other passers underReid gives us a stat line that includes 529 attempts, 309 completions, 3,418 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, performance on par with Blake Bortles of the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2017, the 13th best passer in fantasy football last year. Smith, by comparison, finished third. piumini moncler uomo

piumini moncler outlet Mahomes had success with deep throws atTexas Tech, completing 16 of 45 passes (36 percent) traveling 30 or more yards past the line of scrimmage for nine touchdowns and two interceptions, with 24 of 45 (53 percent) moncler saldi outlet passes on target per Sports Info Solutions. But that was against college competition. The average NFL passer has an on target rate of 42 percent with Smith leading the league in this regard in 2017 piumini moncler saldi at 60 percent. piumini moncler outlet

moncler saldi uomo IfMahomes piumini moncler is indeed an average deep passer in the NFL, https://www.moncleroutlet-i.org and Hill is once again targeted 18 times this far down field, and his touchdown rate remains the same as it did in 2017, we would expect him to catch three or four deep touchdowns passes, not six like moncler outlet online shop he did in 2017. His yardage on these plays would drop from 597 to approximately 376 yards as well, resulting in a total loss of 40 fantasy points in PPR leagues. That’s enough to drop Hill from the ninth best wideout to No. moncler saldi uomo

moncler saldi outlet Plus, the signing ofSammy Watkins, another deep threat, over the summer could have Hill competing for long range targets. Watkins was targeted on 53 percent of the Rams throws of 30 yards or more in 2017, slightly more than Hill’s share with Kansas City (50 percent). Watkins, however, didn’t have as many catchable throws as Hill, but of the three Watkins did have moncler outlet serravalle a chance at he caught two for 101 yards and a score. moncler saldi outlet

piumini moncler Throws 30+ yards in the air in 2017 Team Targets Catchabletargets Recs Yds TDs Tyreek Hill Chiefs 18 12 12 597 6 Sammy Watkins Rams 11 3 2 114 1 Per Sports Info Solutions And so far, Watkins is earning rave reviews. piumini moncler

moncler bambino outlet “We’re moving him all over the place, and he’s handled it,” Reid said of Watkins to ESPN’s Adam Teicher. “We’ve overloaded him with that. That’s how we do it in this offense. That’s something new for him. You can tell he’s a guy that takes it away from here and studies. When we’re doing all these different formations, you’ve got to do that. You just can’t get it all when you’re here. You’ve got to go back and you’ve got to review, and he’s done that and he’s really limited the mistakes for all we’ve given him.” moncler bambino outlet.